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2026 HSC Legal Studies — Intuition Education Predicted Paper

100 marks · an original Intuition practice paper realising the consensus predictions — every question links to the evidence behind it. Prefer the PDF?

Provenance & general instructions

This full-length practice paper was built from the consensus of a six-model AI panel (fable, opus, gpt-5.6-sol, gemini-3.1-pro, grok, deepseek), each of which independently predicted the 2026 examination from the 2019–2025 papers, marking guidelines and NESA marking-centre feedback. The panel's question-level predictions were clustered; every cluster with consensus probability ≥ 0.55 is realised here, the compulsory structure realises the leading cluster in each remaining slot, and the panel's watch list is drawn on for the option-specific alternatives. The paper matches the verified 2025 structure: Section I (20 marks, multiple choice), Section II Part A (Human Rights, 15 marks) and Part B (Crime, 15 marks), Section III (Options, 2 × 25 marks) — 100 marks total. Every question is original — none is copied from a past paper. Questions are tagged with the consensus cluster they realise (see synthesis/legal-consensus-questions.yaml).

General instructions

  • Reading time — 5 minutes
  • Working time — 3 hours
  • Write using black pen
  • Section I — 20 marks. Attempt Questions 1–20. Allow about 30 minutes for this section
  • Section II — 30 marks. Attempt Questions 21–24. Allow about 1 hour for this section
  • Section III — 50 marks. Attempt TWO questions from Questions 25–31, each from a different Option. Allow about 1 hour and 30 minutes for this section

Section I

20 marks — Attempt Questions 1–20 — Allow about 30 minutes for this section

Use the multiple-choice answer sheet for Questions 1–20.

Question 1

A man standing on a railway overpass drops a shopping trolley onto the tracks as a train approaches, later telling police he "knew it might derail the train but didn't care either way".

Which element of a crime does this statement most directly establish?

  • A. Causation
  • B. Actus reus
  • C. Mens rea in the form of recklessness
  • D. Mens rea in the form of criminal negligence

Question 2

Kim plans a warehouse robbery and supplies the getaway car, but stays home on the night. Lee waits outside the warehouse as a lookout while Morgan carries out the robbery.

Which row of the table correctly classifies Kim and Lee?

Kim Lee
A. Accessory before the fact Principal in the second degree
B. Principal in the second degree Accessory before the fact
C. Accessory after the fact Principal in the first degree
D. Principal in the first degree Accessory after the fact

Question 3

An offender is convicted of assault. The assault was committed in company with others, and the offender pleaded guilty at the earliest opportunity.

Which row of the table correctly classifies these two factors for sentencing purposes?

Committed in company Early guilty plea
A. Aggravating Mitigating
B. Mitigating Aggravating
C. Aggravating Aggravating
D. Mitigating Mitigating

A 12-year-old is charged with a serious indictable offence.

For the prosecution to succeed, what must it prove in addition to the elements of the offence?

  • A. That the child's parents consented to the prosecution proceeding
  • B. That the child knew at the time that the conduct was seriously wrong
  • C. That the child had previously been cautioned under a diversionary scheme
  • D. Nothing further — a child aged 12 cannot be charged with an indictable offence

Question 5

Police reasonably suspect that evidence of a drug supply offence is stored inside a suspect's home. The occupier refuses entry.

What do police generally require before they can lawfully search the home?

  • A. A search warrant issued by an authorised judicial officer
  • B. Written authorisation from a senior police officer
  • C. The consent of any other person who lives at the premises
  • D. Nothing further — reasonable suspicion alone authorises entry to a dwelling

Question 6

An adult charged with a serious indictable offence applies for bail.

Which factor is most likely to result in bail being refused?

  • A. The accused has already spent one month on remand
  • B. The accused intends to plead not guilty at trial
  • C. The court finds an unacceptable risk that the accused will endanger the community
  • D. The prosecution's case relies substantially on circumstantial evidence

Question 7

An accused charged with murder agrees to plead guilty to manslaughter, and the murder charge is withdrawn.

What is the main benefit of this charge negotiation for society?

  • A. It guarantees a longer custodial sentence for the offender
  • B. It allows the victim's family to determine the final charge
  • C. It ensures a jury will still determine the facts of the offence
  • D. It secures a certain conviction while saving the time and cost of a trial

Question 8

An accused's application for a judge-alone trial is granted.

What is required of the judge in this trial that would NOT be required of a jury?

  • A. Providing written reasons for the verdict
  • B. Reaching a verdict beyond reasonable doubt
  • C. Remaining separate from the parties during the trial
  • D. Determining the admissibility of the evidence presented

Question 9

In a criminal trial for larceny, which row of the table is correct?

Burden of proof rests on Standard of proof
A. The prosecution Beyond reasonable doubt
B. The accused Beyond reasonable doubt
C. The prosecution Balance of probabilities
D. The accused Balance of probabilities

Question 10

After an offender is found guilty, the victim reads a victim impact statement to the court.

Which statement about the victim impact statement is correct?

  • A. It is considered by the jury when determining guilt
  • B. It may be considered by the judge when determining the sentence
  • C. It determines the maximum penalty available for the offence
  • D. It replaces the prosecution's submissions on sentencing

Question 11

An offender is sentenced to an intensive correction order with a condition requiring participation in a drug and alcohol treatment program.

Which purpose of punishment is being given priority?

  • A. Retribution
  • B. Rehabilitation
  • C. Incapacitation
  • D. General deterrence

Question 12

A State authority applies to a court for an order that an offender serving a sentence for a serious violent offence remain in custody after the sentence expires, on the basis that the offender still poses a high risk to the community.

What is this an example of?

  • A. Parole
  • B. Remand
  • C. Continued detention
  • D. Preventative detention

Question 13

Which row of the table correctly matches the legal personnel with their role?

Prosecutes serious indictable offences Represents accused people in serious matters who have been granted legal aid
A. Director of Public Prosecutions Public Defender
B. Police prosecutor Public Defender
C. Director of Public Prosecutions Police prosecutor
D. Public Defender Director of Public Prosecutions

Question 14

A person commits a serious fraud in New Zealand and then travels to New South Wales. New Zealand formally requests that Australia return the person to face trial.

What is this process called?

  • A. Deportation
  • B. Extradition
  • C. Rendition
  • D. Repatriation

Question 15

A military commander from State X is accused of war crimes. State X has a functioning and independent court system that is willing and able to prosecute the commander.

Why would the International Criminal Court be unlikely to hear this matter?

  • A. The ICC has no jurisdiction over individuals
  • B. War crimes can only be heard by the International Court of Justice
  • C. The principle of complementarity gives priority to a willing and able national court
  • D. The ICC may act only where the UN Security Council orders a prosecution

Question 16

The right of workers to form and join trade unions is most directly recognised in which of the following?

  • A. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights alone
  • B. Conventions of the International Labour Organization and the ICESCR
  • C. The Convention on the Rights of the Child
  • D. The Statute of the International Court of Justice

Question 17

Which statement best describes the protection of human rights in Australia?

  • A. Rights are comprehensively protected by a constitutional bill of rights
  • B. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights operates directly as binding domestic law
  • C. Rights are protected through a combination of limited constitutional rights, statutes and the common law
  • D. The High Court has no capacity to recognise rights that are not expressly stated in the Constitution

Question 18

Which row of the table correctly classifies the organisations?

Intergovernmental organisation Non-government organisation
A. United Nations Human Rights Council Amnesty International
B. Amnesty International United Nations Human Rights Council
C. Australian Human Rights Commission United Nations Human Rights Council
D. Amnesty International Australian Human Rights Commission

Question 19

Which of the following is an example of the enforcement of human rights, rather than their promotion?

  • A. A school program educating students about discrimination
  • B. A media campaign raising awareness of modern slavery
  • C. A United Nations committee publishing recommendations following a periodic review
  • D. A court ordering a remedy for a breach of anti-discrimination legislation

Question 20

A nation state ratifies a human rights treaty but later ignores the findings of the treaty's monitoring body.

What is the main reason the international community has limited capacity to compel the state to comply?

  • A. State sovereignty
  • B. The doctrine of precedent
  • C. The separation of powers
  • D. The principle of complementarity

Section II

30 marks — Attempt Questions 21–24 — Allow about 1 hour for this section

Part A — Human Rights (15 marks) — Attempt Questions 21–23


Question 23 (7 marks)

Why this question → 6 of 6, p 0.52

Evaluate the effectiveness of legal and non-legal responses in protecting human rights. In your answer, refer to at least ONE contemporary human rights issue.

Part B — Crime (15 marks) — Attempt Question 24

Your answer will be assessed on how well you:

  • demonstrate knowledge and understanding of legal issues relevant to the question
  • communicate using relevant legal terminology and concepts
  • refer to relevant examples such as legislation, cases, media, international instruments and documents
  • present a sustained, logical and cohesive response

Question 24 (15 marks)

Why this question → 4 of 6, p 0.53

To what extent does the criminal investigation process balance the rights of suspects with the interests of the community? In your answer, refer to police powers and the exercise of discretion.

Section III — Options

50 marks — Attempt TWO questions from Questions 25–31, each from a different Option — Allow about 1 hour and 30 minutes for this section

Your answers will be assessed on how well you:

  • demonstrate knowledge and understanding of legal issues relevant to the question
  • communicate using relevant legal terminology and concepts
  • refer to relevant examples such as legislation, cases, media, international instruments and documents
  • present a sustained, logical and cohesive response

In each question, answer either (a) OR (b). The (b) alternative in every option realises cluster legal-q3-options-law-reform-stem, p = 0.55 — the panel's strongest Section III call: a uniform role-of-law-reform stem, unused as an options frame since 2019.

Question 25 — Consumers (25 marks)

Why this question → 5 of 6, p 0.55

(a) To what extent are legal responses effective in achieving redress and remedies for consumers? In your answer, refer to the roles of courts, tribunals and government organisations.

OR

(b) Assess the role of law reform in achieving just outcomes for consumers. In your answer, you must refer to at least ONE contemporary issue.

Question 26 — Global Environmental Protection (25 marks)

Why this question → 3 of 6, p 0.36 Why this question → 5 of 6, p 0.55

(a) Evaluate the effectiveness of Australia's responses to international initiatives for global environmental protection. — cluster legal-q10, p = 0.36

OR

(b) Assess the role of law reform in achieving just outcomes for the global environment. In your answer, you must refer to at least ONE contemporary issue.

(a) Evaluate the effectiveness of legal and non-legal responses to domestic and family violence in achieving justice for family members. — cluster legal-q9, p = 0.50

OR

(b) Assess the role of law reform in achieving just outcomes for family members. In your answer, you must refer to at least ONE contemporary issue.

Question 28 — Indigenous Peoples (25 marks)

(a) To what extent have legal responses achieved justice for Indigenous peoples? In your answer, refer to at least ONE contemporary issue.

OR

(b) Assess the role of law reform in achieving just outcomes for Indigenous peoples. In your answer, you must refer to at least ONE contemporary issue.

Question 29 — Shelter (25 marks)

Why this question → 5 of 6, p 0.55

(a) To what extent do legal responses protect people in shelter arrangements other than mainstream tenancy, such as boarding houses, residential parks and aged-care accommodation? — watch list: marginal tenures

OR

(b) Assess the role of law reform in achieving just outcomes for those seeking shelter. In your answer, you must refer to at least ONE contemporary issue.

(a) To what extent are legal responses effective in addressing the issue of safety in the workplace? — cluster legal-q8, p = 0.39

OR

(b) Assess the role of law reform in achieving just outcomes in the workplace. In your answer, you must refer to at least ONE contemporary issue.

Answers & marking notes not part of the examination paper — try the paper first

Answers and marking guidance

Section I — answer key

Q Answer Rationale (and the flagged confusion the distractors encode)
1 C Foresight of the risk with indifference is recklessness — a form of mens rea; D (negligence) is the trap for "didn't care".
2 A Planner absent from the scene = accessory before the fact; lookout present assisting = principal in the second degree. B swaps them — the classic parties-to-a-crime permutation.
3 A In company aggravates; an early guilty plea mitigates (utilitarian discount).
4 B Doli incapax is a rebuttable presumption for 10–13-year-olds: the prosecution must prove the child knew the act was seriously wrong (not merely naughty). D encodes "cannot be charged" — the flagged misconception.
5 A Search of a dwelling without consent generally requires a warrant from an authorised judicial officer — not senior police authorisation (B), the flagged trap.
6 C Bail turns on unacceptable risk (endangering the community, failing to appear, interfering with witnesses). A encodes the remand-as-bail-factor confusion.
7 D Charge negotiation's societal benefit is certainty plus efficiency; the victim does not decide (B), and no trial follows a plea (C).
8 A A judge sitting alone must give reasons for the verdict; a jury never does.
9 A Prosecution bears the burden; criminal standard is beyond reasonable doubt. C/D encode the civil-standard confusion.
10 B The VIS is received after conviction and may inform sentencing; A (jury/guilt) is the flagged confusion about when victim input occurs.
11 B A treatment-program condition prioritises rehabilitation.
12 C Detaining a still-serving offender beyond the expiry of the sentence by court order is continued detention; D (preventative) is the paired trap flagged since 2019.
13 A DPP prosecutes indictable matters; Public Defenders represent legally aided accused in serious matters. B/C swap in the police prosecutor (summary matters).
14 B A formal request to surrender a person to face charges is extradition; deportation (A) is administrative removal — the flagged pair.
15 C Complementarity: the ICC acts only where the national jurisdiction is unwilling or unable. A and B encode the ICC/ICJ confusions.
16 B Labour rights sit in ILO conventions and ICESCR (Art 8); the UDHR alone (A) is declaratory.
17 C Australia's protection is a patchwork of limited constitutional rights, statutes and common law — no comprehensive charter (A), UDHR not directly binding (B), implied rights exist (D).
18 A UN HRC is intergovernmental; Amnesty is an NGO; the AHRC is a domestic statutory body, not an NGO — the IGO/NGO classifier flagged in feedback.
19 D An enforceable court remedy is enforcement; A–C are promotion/monitoring. Targets the promotion/protection/enforcement conflation.
20 A State sovereignty is the standing limit on compelling compliance; D misapplies complementarity outside the ICC context.

Question 21 (3 marks) — marking guidance

  • 3 marks: traces change over time — e.g. industrial-era suppression of combination, through collective recognition (ILO conventions; ICESCR Art 8 / UDHR Art 23), to domestic statutory protection (e.g. Fair Work framework) — with at least one named instrument or statute.
  • 2 marks: outlines some development over time with limited support.
  • 1 mark: identifies a relevant feature of labour rights (definition only — the flagged weakness).

Question 22 (5 marks) — marking guidance

  • 5 marks: presents developed argument on BOTH sides with accurate features of the current arrangements — for: certainty, justiciable remedies, filling gaps in the constitutional/statutory/common-law patchwork, alignment with comparable jurisdictions; against: parliamentary sovereignty, transfer of power to unelected judges, existing protections adequate and flexible, definitional rigidity — and reaches a considered position or balanced close.
  • 3–4 marks: sound arguments both ways with some support, or well-developed one side plus limited other.
  • 1–2 marks: identifies an argument or describes rights protection in Australia.
  • Watch: confusing express, implied and charter rights caps at 3.

Question 23 (7 marks) — marking guidance

  • 6–7 marks: sustained evaluation (judgement woven through, not appended) of BOTH legal responses (e.g. treaties and their incorporation, courts and tribunals, statutory bodies) and non-legal responses (NGOs, media, civil society) against criteria such as enforceability, accessibility and responsiveness, integrated with ONE well-chosen contemporary issue; distinguishes promotion from protection from enforcement.
  • 4–5 marks: sound evaluation with an issue, but judgement uneven or one response type thin.
  • 2–3 marks: describes responses and/or the issue with minimal judgement (the flagged weakness in 2019/2023/2025).
  • 1 mark: identifies a relevant response.

Question 24 (15 marks) — marking guidance outline

A top-band response:

  • makes and sustains an informed judgement of extent — the investigation process protects suspects' rights only partially / conditionally — rather than narrating the process;
  • covers BOTH named elements: police powers (search and seizure, warrants, detention and interrogation limits, right to silence, bail/remand) AND the exercise of discretion (to stop, search, caution, charge; prosecutorial and bail decisions) — one-limb answers band down (the AND/OR guideline pattern of 2024–2025);
  • deploys specific legislation and at least one case; statutory anchors such as the NSW law enforcement powers legislation (LEPRA) and bail legislation are the expected evidence (external-knowledge anchor — verify currency);
  • weighs safeguards (warrants from judicial officers, detention time limits, the caution, oversight bodies such as LECC) against community-interest mechanisms (extended detention regimes, preventative powers, bail risk tests);
  • avoids the flagged wrong-slot errors: no victim impact statements or sentencing content in an investigation answer; bail distinguished from remand and parole.

Bands (guideline-style outline): 13–15 sustained judgement, both elements, integrated current examples; 10–12 sound judgement, both elements uneven or examples thin; 7–9 describes the process with implied judgement or covers one element well; 4–6 partial description, terminology weak; 1–3 identifies relevant features.

Section III — marking guidance outlines

All option responses are marked against the four printed criteria; top band requires a sustained, integrated judgement with current examples ("dated cases and legislation" is the recurring feedback penalty). Expected top-band evidence by question (LEDs marked ◆ are external-knowledge anchors — real reforms absent from the study pack; verify currency before relying on them):

  • 25(a) Consumers — redress: ACL guarantees and remedies; NCAT accessibility vs Federal Court enforcement; ACCC/ASIC litigation and penalties; class actions; judgement on BOTH courts/tribunals AND government organisations (the 2021(a) flagged weakness).
  • 25(b) Consumers — law reform: BNPL brought under the credit framework◆, scams-prevention legislation◆, unfair contract terms penalties; judged for responsiveness to the digital economy, not narrated chronologically.
  • 26(a) GEP — Australia's responses: Climate Change Act 2022 targets, safeguard mechanism◆, EPBC reform stall◆, ratification practice and the external affairs power; judged against international commitments. Top answers may also apply ESD principles (watch-list realisation).
  • 26(b) GEP — law reform: as above, plus the ICJ advisory opinion on states' climate obligations◆ as the landmark new "court" example; COP outcomes vs sovereignty.
  • 27(a) Family — DV: the NSW coercive control offence◆ (commenced July 2024) as the headline LED, ADVO regime, serious-DV bail changes◆, police and court responses, plus non-legal responses (support services, media advocacy); justice judged for victims, including enforcement gaps.
  • 27(b) Family — law reform: Family Law Amendment Act 2023 parenting reforms◆ (repeal of the equal-shared-parental-responsibility presumption), coercive control◆, surrogacy or same-sex recognition as acceptable issues (watch-list realisation).
  • 28 Indigenous Peoples: outside the panel taxonomy (no model predictions); stems are structural-parity only. Markers should apply the standard criteria to the candidate's studied issues.
  • 29(a) Shelter — marginal tenures: boarding houses legislation, residential parks and retirement villages regimes, aged-care accommodation rights; contrasts with mainstream tenancy protection; the breadth the 2019–2021 feedback repeatedly demanded.
  • 29(b) Shelter — law reform: the 2024–25 NSW rental reforms — no-grounds evictions abolished, rent-increase and pet reforms◆ — as the model case study answering the defect flagged in 2023 feedback; social housing initiatives.
  • 30(a) Workplace — safety: WHS Act duties, SafeWork NSW enforcement, industrial manslaughter offence◆, psychosocial hazard regulation◆, workers compensation; effectiveness judged through deterrence and compliance evidence.
  • 30(b) Workplace — law reform: criminalised wage theft◆, right to disconnect◆, gig-economy "employee-like" protections◆, Respect@Work positive duty◆; judged for whether reform recognises rights AND enforces responsibilities.
  • 31(a) World Order — global cooperation: UN Charter mechanisms and P5 veto practice, UNGA action where the UNSC is paralysed, sanctions coalitions, ICJ provisional measures and ICC arrest warrants in current conflicts◆, R2P's limits; success judged, not narrated. Political negotiation, persuasion and force may legitimately carry part of the judgement (watch-list realisation).
  • 31(b) World Order — law reform: treaty development and amendment, Rome Statute practice, sanctions regimes; cooperation successes and failures as the contemporary issue.
Prediction provenance working — which prediction each part of the paper realises, linked both ways
Paper item Prediction Agreement

Section I Q2

↑ Q2
topic-level consensus trend call (fable; format lineage 2020/2022/2024/2025) · 3 (fable, opus, gpt-5.6-sol table-format trend)

Section I Q3

↑ Q3
topic-level consensus 0.62–0.80 · 4 (fable, opus, grok, gemini-3.1-pro)

Section I Q4

↑ Q4
legal-q2-mc-doli-incapax-young-offender 0.65 · 5 (fable, opus, gpt-5.6-sol, grok, deepseek)

Section I Q5

↑ Q5
topic-level consensus 0.55–0.72 · 4 (opus, gpt-5.6-sol, grok, fable)

Section I Q6

↑ Q6
topic-level consensus 0.55 (deepseek) · 3 (deepseek, fable, gemini-3.1-pro)

Section I Q7

↑ Q7
topic-level consensus 0.46–0.80 · 2 (grok, fable)

Section I Q8

↑ Q8
topic-level consensus 0.50 (deepseek) · 2 (deepseek, fable)

Section I Q9

↑ Q9
topic-level consensus 0.72 (gpt-5.6-sol) · 2 (gpt-5.6-sol, fable)

Section I Q10

↑ Q10
topic-level consensus 0.55 (deepseek) · 1 (deepseek)

Section I Q11

↑ Q11
topic-level consensus 0.60–0.90 · 3 (deepseek, gemini-3.1-pro, grok)

Section I Q12

↑ Q12
topic-level consensus 0.55 (opus) · 4 (opus, fable, gpt-5.6-sol, grok)

Section I Q13

↑ Q13
topic-level consensus 0.45 (opus) · 2 (opus, deepseek)

Section I Q14

↑ Q14
topic-level consensus 0.50–0.80 · 3 (fable, grok, deepseek)

Section I Q15

↑ Q15
topic-level consensus 0.50–0.80 · 4 (fable, opus, gpt-5.6-sol, grok)

Section I Q16

↑ Q16
topic-level consensus — · pool

Section I Q17

↑ Q17
topic-level consensus — · 3 (fable, gpt-5.6-sol, grok)

Section I Q18

↑ Q18
topic-level consensus — · 3 (opus, grok, fable)

Section I Q19

↑ Q19
topic-level consensus — · 4 (opus, grok, deepseek, fable)

Section I Q20

↑ Q20
topic-level consensus — · 2 (gpt-5.6-sol, grok)

Q21

↑ Q21
legal-q6-hr-labour-slavery-opener 0.44 · 4 (fable, opus, grok, deepseek)

Q22

↑ Q22
legal-q7-hr-charter-of-rights 0.41 · 4 (fable, opus, gpt-5.6-sol, grok)

Q23

↑ Q23
legal-q4-hr-7mark-contemporary-closer 0.52 · 6 (all)

Q24

↑ Q24
legal-q5-er-investigation-rights 0.53 (+ fable 0.20 / opus 0.28 discretion) · 4 (gpt-5.6-sol, gemini-3.1-pro, grok, deepseek); fable and opus dissent toward discretion — realised as the rider

Q25(a)

↑ Q25(a)
topic-level consensus 0.30 (fable), 0.55 (gemini-3.1-pro) · 2

Q25(b)

↑ Q25(b)
legal-q3-options-law-reform-stem 0.55 · 5 (fable, opus, gpt-5.6-sol, gemini-3.1-pro, grok)

Q26(a)

↑ Q26(a)
legal-q10-globals-unused-mandatory-issue 0.36 · 3 (fable, opus, grok)

Q26(b)

↑ Q26(b)
legal-q3-options-law-reform-stem 0.55 · 5

Q27(a)

↑ Q27(a)
legal-q9-family-dv-coercive-control 0.50 · 2 (fable, gemini-3.1-pro)

Q27(b)

↑ Q27(b)
legal-q3-options-law-reform-stem 0.55 · 5

Q28(a)/(b)

↑ Q28(a)
topic-level consensus — · —

Q29(a)

↑ Q29(a)
watch list 0.22–0.40 · 4 (deepseek, gpt-5.6-sol, fable, opus)

Q29(b)

↑ Q29(b)
legal-q3-options-law-reform-stem 0.55 · 5

Q30(a)

↑ Q30(a)
legal-q8-workplace-safety-returns 0.39 · 4 (fable, opus, gpt-5.6-sol, grok)

Q30(b)

↑ Q30(b)
legal-q3-options-law-reform-stem 0.55 · 5

Q31(a)

↑ Q31(a)
legal-q10-globals-unused-mandatory-issue 0.36 · 3 (fable, opus, grok)

Q31(b)

↑ Q31(b)
legal-q3-options-law-reform-stem 0.55 · 5

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Published Aug 2026, before the exams. In November 2026 we score these predictions publicly against the real paper — per-model calibration and question-level hit rates, the same harness as the 2025 backtest. How we did it.